May 22, 2022

News: Poll Confirms Gara has best chance to beat Dunleavy; leads all challengers.

Last week Lake Research, a nationally recognized polling firm, released a poll following the leaked Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, showing governors candidate Les Gara has the best chance of all challengers to beat Mike Dunleavy. Their polling analysis is linked here.

Gara is the only pro-choice candidate running for governor in a state where roughly 65% of voters support a woman’s right to choose. The other five candidates in this race are all “pro-life” according to their statements in this race.

In a ranked choice voting election in November, the May poll shows that Gara leads former governor Bill Walker by six points.

If voters for these two candidates rank the other as their second choice, the most likely scenario, then the combined vote for these two candidates is 42%. It’s important for voters who don’t want four more years of the current Governor to rank a second choice in this election.

The poll confirms that Gara has significant room to continue to rise, as his polling puts him ahead of Walker with only 50% of Alaskans being familiar with his positions. That leaves significant room to grow with the other 50% of voters as they hear Gara and running mate Jessica Cook’s message for a better future.

The poll indicates strongly that the two candidates who have served as governor do not have that kind of room to grow, given that their name recognition has peaked. Both have significant negative ratings among voters, most of whom already know them.

“We’ve known from the first poll before we announced we were running that we were ahead of all challengers to Dunleavy. As we begin to advertise, and people hear our message for a better future, with opportunity for all, a stronger economy, needed renewable energy, and a state that protects Alaska’s fish, we expect our numbers to continue to rise, and to win if our voters choose Walker as their 2nd choice, and his voters choose us as their second choice. There’s a lot of campaigning left to do. And we’ll keep working hard this campaign,” said Gara.

With ranked choice voting, candidates who seek a far different and better future than the incumbent will most likely “share” votes, instead of “splitting” them as sometimes occurred under the prior system.